Blinded continuous monitoring in clinical trials with recurrent event endpoints

In studies with recurrent event endpoints, misspecified assumptions of event rates or dispersion can lead to underpowered trials or overexposure of patients. Specification of overdispersion is often a particular problem as it is usually not reported in clinical trial publications. Changing event rates over the years have been described for some diseases, adding to the uncertainty in planning. To mitigate the risks of inadequate sample sizes, internal pilot study designs have been proposed with a preference for blinded sample size reestimation procedures, as they generally do not affect the type I error rate and maintain trial integrity. Blinded sample size reestimation procedures are available for trials with recurrent events as endpoints. However, the variance in the reestimated sample size can be considerable in particular with early sample size reviews. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in paediatric multiple sclerosis, a rare neurological condition in children, we apply the concept of blinded continuous monitoring of information, which is known to reduce the variance in the resulting sample size. Assuming negative binomial distributions for the counts of recurrent relapses, we derive information criteria and propose blinded continuous monitoring procedures. The operating characteristics of these are assessed in Monte Carlo trial simulations demonstrating favourable properties with regard to type I error rate, power, and stopping time, ie, sample size.     

中国传统行政的善治理想及其现代影响——以黄宗羲为例

中国传统行政理论在长期发展中积累了丰富的内容,形成了完整的理论形态,并在明清之际达到了它近乎顶峰的极限状态,黄宗羲的善治理论就是它在这个阶段的重要代表。黄宗羲视域中的善治在内容及方式上,都延续了儒家传统主流观点。它在内容上首先要求圣王,即唯有圣王才能以“不忍人之心”行“不忍人之政”,所谓善治实际上就是“不忍人之政”;其次它还将善治的具体内容确定为养民与教民,“养民”就是使民足以事父母及畜妻子,养生送死无憾,“教民”就是用圣王学说教育民众,使民衣食住行都合乎礼;再次它还主张治理目的是使民皆“至于至善”和“止于至善”。中国传统行政理论的善治理想在现实中还有强劲的生命力,它既表现为行政的强烈伦理导向,又表现为一种主动作为的积极政府观,还表现为一种彻底的以人为本的人文主义。     

A novel approach based on multiple correspondence analysis for monitoring social networks with categorical attributed data

In in most cases, the distribution of communications is unknown and one may summarize social network communications with categorical attributes in a contingency table. Due to the categorical nature of the data and a large number of features, there are many parameters to be considered and estimated in the model. Hence, the accuracy of estimators decreases. To overcome the problem of high dimensionality and unknown communications distribution, multiple correspondence analysis is used to reduce the number of parameters. Then the rescaled data are studied in a Dirichlet model in which the parameters should be estimated. Moreover, two control charts, Hotelling’s T² and multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA), are developed to monitor the parameters of the Dirichlet distribution. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through simulation studies in terms of average run length criterion. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a real case.     

太极拳与瑜伽术的传统意蕴及其文化学阐释

中、印传统体育文化蕴含了东方文明对于处世之道和养身模式的价值追求，作为东方体育文化典型代表的太极拳与瑜伽术，既是修炼身心、运动健身的重要项目，也是人们了解东方体育文化的重要媒介。跨文化比较分析表明，太极拳和瑜伽术在注重身形技法与艺术审美的结合、吐纳导引与意念游动的耦合、修身养性与天人意境的融合等方面具有共性，也有差异，体现出中、印在传统体育文化方面的异同。太极拳和瑜伽术的传承应该做到与时俱进、创新发展，其目标既不是传统竞技搏击术，也不是简单修炼养身术，而是融道德修养与身心修炼为一体的综合性运动项目。     

Safe-by-Design: Stakeholders’ Perceptions and Expectations of How to Deal with Uncertain Risks of Emerging Biotechnologies in the Netherlands

Advanced gene editing techniques such as Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeat (CRISPR)/Cas have increased the pace of developments in the field of industrial biotechnology. Such techniques imply new possibilities when working with living organisms, possibly leading to uncertain risks. In the Netherlands, current policy fails to address these uncertain risks because risk classification is determined process-wise (i.e., genetically modified organism [GMO] and non-GMO), there is a strong focus on quantifiable risks, and the linearity within current governance (science–policy–society) hinders iterative communication between stakeholders, leaving limited room to anticipate uncertainties at an early stage of development. A suggested concept to overcome these shortcomings is the Safe-by-Design (SbD) approach, which, theoretically, allows stakeholders to iteratively incorporate safety measures throughout a technology's development process, creating a dynamic environment for the anticipation of uncertain risks. Although this concept originates from chemical engineering and is already widely applied in nanotechnology, for the field of biotechnology, there is no agreed upon definition yet. To explore the possibilities of SbD for future governance of biotechnology, we should gain insight in how various stakeholders perceive notions of risk, safety, and inherent safety, and what this implies for the applicability of SbD for risk governance concerning industrial biotechnology. Our empirical research reveals three main themes: (1) diverging expectations with regard to safety and risks, and to establish an acceptable level of risk; (2) different applications of SbD and inherent safety, namely, product- and process-wise; and (3) unclarity in allocating responsibilities to stakeholders in the development process of a biotechnology and within society.     

无产阶级政权建设规律的初步探索

马克思从揭示人类社会发展规律的角度,通过对世界上第一次出现的无产阶级政权——巴黎公社的分析和总结,阐述了科学社会主义政权建设理论,提出了一些基本政治原则。他指出:建立一个真正的人民国家是无产阶级专政的基础和前提;以责任制廉价政府代替官僚等级制政府是其主要形式;以议行合一原则取代分权制衡原则的权力分配形式可以保证国家机构的政治效能。中国共产党在长期执政实践中积累了丰富的执政经验,党的十九大提出中国特色社会主义已进入新时代。在此契机下重新研读马克思经典著作,对认识和把握中国共产党执政新飞跃、实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化有着重大现实意义。     

Economic statistical design of the T2 control chart under the Weibull shock model with multiple assignable causes

A proper monitoring of stochastic systems is the control charts of statistical process control and drift in characteristics of output may be due to one or several assignable causes. Although much research has been done on the design of control charts, the economic statistical design of the T2 control chart under the Weibull shock model with multiple assignable causes has not yet been addressed. Therefore, we tried to deal with it in this paper and thus we developed a cost model based on the variable sampling interval. We also give an example to support the practical use of T2 chart under the Weibull shock model with multiple assignable causes. Based on the optimization of the average cost per unit of time and taking into account the different combination values of Weibull distribution parameters, optimal values of design parameters were derived and calculated. Then, the cost models under the influence of single assignable cause and multiple assignable causes under the same cost and time parameters were compared. Also, a sensitivity analysis was conducted in which the variability of loss cost and design parameters due to change of cost and time and Weibull distribution parameters were evaluated.     

论近代川边治理与国防安全：从赵尔丰到刘文辉

风云激荡的近代“川边”，历任主政者的川边治理成效殊异：赵尔丰籍“平康三策”，锐意进取，开拓出广阔的川边境域，成功践行“固川保藏”方略。尹昌衡藉个人英雄主义维持短暂的绚烂；其后走马灯式的镇守使无法掌控川边局势，失地溃败；颇具政治韬略的刘文辉，妥善处理民族关系，稳固川边，促使西康成功建省。34年的川边治理为现代西南边疆治理留下了鲜活的经验教训，川滇藏结合部需要新的边疆治理统筹。     

数字经济发展的评估指标体系研究——基于投入产出视角

发展数字经济是我国重要国策，对其评估指标体系的研究受到多方关注，但目前我国数字经济测度仅仅局限于数字化产业和数字化创新，尚未形成一个完整、系统的数字经济评价指标体系。文章在引入治理环境的基础上，基于经济学上的投入产出视角探讨我国数字经济发展的有效测度方法，在研究数字经济的发展效应中新添了数字化治理和数字知识型人才供给两项指标，构建了一套基于投入产出视角的数字经济发展评价指标体系，为衡量数字经济发展提供了一个系统的体系。为提升数字治理现代化水平，更好发挥数字经济在促进经济高质量发展中的作用提供了实践意义和政策参考。     

网络直播聚合犯罪的罪因、特征与治理措施

网络直播聚合犯罪愈演愈烈，主要集中于知识产权犯罪和色情犯罪领域，国内目前对该类犯罪的研究较少。网络直播聚合犯罪与社会结构方面的紧张、个人违法性意识方面的紧张存在关系，前者主要体现为：商品拜物教影响下的部分民众设定目标时日益以物质获得为参考系；阶层固化使得处于部分底层民众无法通过制度性手段实现目标。后者主要体现为网络直播聚合犯罪者实施犯罪，与其权衡犯罪成本与获利数额、心存侥幸有关。在对案例进行实证分析的前提下，归纳概括出此类犯罪的三个主要特征：犯罪主体呈现出低龄化、学历较低、无业状态较多的特点；分工的复杂性、网络的匿名性使得犯罪的隐蔽性较强；黑灰产业链业已形成并成熟。对此类犯罪的治理，应当坚持惩防并举，在惩罚方面应当注意网络直播聚合共同犯罪认定规则的变通适用，以及网络直播聚合犯罪立法扩张、司法限缩与严格执法之间的关系；在预防方面应当构建国家、社会两位一体的预防模式。